Tin Market Dynamics – A ‘green market’
Tin is one of the best performing commodities globally at current prices of around US$20,700 per tonne and a global tin market valued at US$8.23bn with robust long-term fundamentals. In today’s economy, tin is of fundamental value and is used to manufacture modern day electronics such as mobile phones. We, at Afritin identified an opportunity in the market and discovered that, as a commodity tin is not well understood demonstrated by the lack of listed tin companies in recent years.
Projected Near Term Tin Price
Tin Market Demand and Supply - Strong Long Term Fundamentals with Increased Demand and Constraint Supply.
As per capita income increases, outlook for the use of electronics continues to soar. Global tin demand is set to increase by 52%, supported by the use of tin in electronic solders, aiding the growing global electronics market. Expected demand growth is set to exceed 50kt by 2027 with new demand emanating from the Lithium Battery Market.
Global tin production is set to stagnate or decline due to a considerable shift in the tin cost curve; caused by 56% of tin mined from underground mines and an increased shift to deeper dredging. Asia and South America continue to be the biggest participants in the market; however China, the world’s largest producer has recently cut exports by 40%. Indonesia, the second largest producer of tin is hampered by a volatile regulatory environment while Peru has been in long-term decline as grades have become increasingly depleted. South Africa continues to be a net importer of tin, and possesses an increased impetus to become one of the biggest players in the market given the lack of new tin mines and exploration activity.
World Mine Production by Category
- Rest Of World
World Mine Production by Method
- Open Pit
- Suction Boats
- Gravel Pump
Uses of Tin
- Brass & bronze
- Float glass
Tin Market Outlook
Tin is a fundamentally supply-constrained market with more than 5 years of consecutive deficit which has led to an upward revision in tin prices for the future. Forecasts show tin prices to surge up to US$19,800/t in 2017 and US$20,500/t in 2018 over the long-term and will increase gradually to US$22 500 by 2021.